Consider the partial configuration . After 14 steps this configuration becomes
. We note the following shift rule:
Using this shift rule, we get in steps. From here, we can observe that turns into in three steps if . By repeating this process, we acquire this transition rule:
With this rule, it takes steps to reach the configuration , which is the same configuration as . To summarize:
With we have . As a result, we can apply this rule times, which creates two possible scenarios:
If , then in steps we arrive at . The matching complete configuration is , which in four steps becomes If then we have reached the undefined A2 transition in steps total. Otherwise, continuing for three steps gives us . Another shift rule is required here:
This means the configuration becomes in steps, and , equal to , one step later. This gives a total of steps.
If , then in steps we arrive at . The matching complete configuration is , which in four steps becomes , and then in steps. After 14 steps, we see the configuration , which turns into in steps. In two steps we get , followed by after another steps. We conclude with , equal to , one step later. This gives a total of steps.
The information above can be summarized as
Substituting for the first two cases and for the third yields the final result.
Trajectory
It takes 20 steps to reach the configuration , and from there, the Collatz-like rules are repeatedly applied. Here are the first few iterations:
Animation of the blank tape becoming in 572 steps (click to view).
After 60 million rule steps, there are 29995836 even values of and 30004165 odd values, giving a very high value. However, this does not sufficiently prove that Hydra does not halt.
A heuristic nonhalting argument
The trajectory of values can be approximated by a random walk, where the walker can only move in step sizes +2 or -1 with equal probability, starting at position 0. The expected position of the walker after steps is , and it can be shown that the probability of the walker reaching position -1 from position is .
Proof
Let denote the probability of the random walker reaching position 0 from position . If the walker reaches position 0, it will do so either by first moving +2 with probability or first moving -1 with probability . Therefore, the recurrence relation is
Bringing all terms with to the left side of the equation and then substituting gives
This equation has the form , which can be solved using the zeroes of the characteristic polynomial . In this instance we get , whose zeroes are given by
For each real root with multiplicity 1, its fundamental solution is , and combining these fundamental solutions produces the general solution. Therefore,
The boundary condition means (since ) and , and the boundary condition requires that .
Finally, we note that reaching position -1 from position , the required condition for halting, is the same as reaching position 0 from position , so we must increment .
For these reasons, Hydra is considered to be a probviously nonhalting machine.