BB(2,5): Difference between revisions

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Yves30. (talk | contribs)
Re-reading the discord discussion on it, the estimated chance for the probviously halting tetrational overflow counter to surpass the champion is between 25 and 50%, since the halting probability per overflow is estimated between 0.2 and 0.35 and 3 nonhalting overflows are required. Thus the previous single value of 30% is inappropriate.
ADucharme (talk | contribs)
Certified progress: proposed rewrite
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In April 2024, Shawn Ligocki publicly released a list of 23,411 undecided BB(2,5) machines. Justin Blanchard then made substantial progress over the course of the next month, reducing the list to 499 [[Holdouts lists|holdouts]] by late May 2024. In June 2024, @mxdys cut down the list to 273 using halting and inductive deciders, and again to 217 using [[Closed Tape Language|CTL]]. In February 2025, @mxdys ran a decider pipeline in Rocq that resulted in only 173 holdouts. Since then, additional machines have been proven in Rocq using both deciders and individual proofs.  
In April 2024, Shawn Ligocki publicly released a list of 23,411 undecided BB(2,5) machines. Justin Blanchard then made substantial progress over the course of the next month, reducing the list to 499 [[Holdouts lists|holdouts]] by late May 2024. In June 2024, @mxdys cut down the list to 273 using halting and inductive deciders, and again to 217 using [[Closed Tape Language|CTL]]. In February 2025, @mxdys ran a decider pipeline in Rocq that resulted in only 173 holdouts. Since then, additional machines have been proven in Rocq using both deciders and individual proofs.  


On [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1355593937531961365 29 Mar 2025], @mxdys published a list of 83 holdouts that withstood state-of-the-art Rocq deciders.
On [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1355593937531961365 29 Mar 2025], @mxdys published a list of 83 holdouts that withstood state-of-the-art Rocq deciders. Over the course of 5 months, @mxdys added 8 machines to Rocq<sup>[https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1355799763437752521 <nowiki>[1]</nowiki>][https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1355828077023854752 <nowiki>[2]</nowiki>][https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1379521528869421137 <nowiki>[3]</nowiki>][https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1379877629288644722 <nowiki>[4]</nowiki>][https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1411488532500971631 <nowiki>[5]</nowiki>]</sup>, lowering the certified holdout count to 75.


Over the course of 5 months, @mxdys added 8 machines to Rocq<sup>[https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1355799763437752521 <nowiki>[1]</nowiki>][https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1355828077023854752 <nowiki>[2]</nowiki>][https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1379521528869421137 <nowiki>[3]</nowiki>][https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1379877629288644722 <nowiki>[4]</nowiki>][https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1411488532500971631 <nowiki>[5]</nowiki>]</sup>, lowering the certified holdout count to 75. There are 11 informal arguments, lowering the informal holdout count to 64.
Using existing C++ deciders, Andrew Ducharme found two machines non-halting on [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1466208979511414885 29 Jan 2026] and [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1471227102844944510 11 Feb 2026]. On [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1481197573611061311 11 March 2026], Peacemaker II solved a permutation of one of the TMs Andrew solved by tweaking some of the decider parameters. @mxdys verified each result the days [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1466331107279769736 they] [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1471228798505582602 were] [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1481326301209165877 announced]. Also on [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1481326301209165877 11 Feb 2026,] @mxdys [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1471229409829847111 proved in Rocq another TM as a translated cycler]. This combined progress reduced the formal holdout count to 71.


Then, on [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1466208979511414885 29 Jan 2026], Andrew Ducharme found a machine nonhalting. This was verified by @mxdys [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1466331107279769736 the same day]. Hence the certified holdout count is 74, and there are still 11 informal arguments, with the informal holdout count being 63.
On 16 March 2026, mxdys formalised a [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1290449717536489622 proof from October 2024] and a [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1428501877947109437 proof from October 2025], thus reducing the holdout count to 69.<sup>[https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1483043448855461989 <nowiki>[6]</nowiki>][https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1483043657778069564 <nowiki>[7]</nowiki>]</sup>


Later, on [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1471227102844944510 11 Feb 2026], Andrew Ducharme found another machine nonhalting, again verified by @mxdys [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1471228798505582602 the same day]. @mxdys also [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1471229409829847111 announced another TM as a translated cycler], thus reducing the holdout count to 72, with 61 informal holdouts.
On 1 April 2026, [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1488737894943166604 Discord user mammillaria shared a Lean formalisation of the BMO 3 problem and its solution], which he created using [https://aristotle.harmonic.fun/ Aristotle AI]. Then [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1488898494386274374 mxdys formalised the result] in Rocq using LLMs, [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1489095097373954199 then extended it] the next day to solve a [[Beaver Math Olympiad#Solved problems|BMO 3]] variant, reducing the holdout count to 66.


On [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1481197573611061311 11 March 2026], Peacemaker II solved a permutation of one of the TMs Andrew solved by tweaking some of the decider parameters. This result was verified by @mxdys [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1481326301209165877 the same day,] reducing the holdout count to 71, with 60 informal holdouts.
On 30 May 2026, [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1510322250769760376 Andrew Ducharme showed] {{TM|1RB2LB---4LB0RB_1LA3RB4RB4RA1LB}} nonhalting via FAR. [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1510867717194911874 mxdys verified the FAR solution in Rocq on 1 June].


On 16 March 2026, mxdys formalised a [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1290449717536489622 proof from October 2024] and a [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1428501877947109437 proof from October 2025], thus reducing the holdout count to 69, with 60 informal holdouts.<sup>[https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1483043448855461989 <nowiki>[6]</nowiki>][https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1483043657778069564 <nowiki>[7]</nowiki>]</sup>
On [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1546880921318326282 8 September 2026], mxdys used the newest Rocq deciders to solve five holdouts, leaving only 60 formal holdouts.
 
On 1 April 2026, [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1488737894943166604 Discord user mammillaria shared a Lean formalisation of the BMO 3 problem and its solution], which he created using [https://aristotle.harmonic.fun/ Aristotle AI]. Then [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1488898494386274374 mxdys formalised the result] in Rocq using LLMs, reducing the holdout count to 67, with 60 informal holdouts.
 
On 2 April 2026, [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1489095097373954199 mxdys formalised] [[Beaver Math Olympiad#Solved problems|BMO 3]] variant {{TM|1RB0RA3LA4LA2RA_2LB3LA---4RA3RB}} using an LLM, reducing the formal holdout count to 66. The proofs for BMO 3 and its variant are available at https://github.com/ccz181078/busycoq/blob/BB6/verify/BMO3.v.
 
On 30 May 2026, [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1510322250769760376 Andrew Ducharme showed] {{TM|1RB2LB---4LB0RB_1LA3RB4RB4RA1LB}} nonhalting via FAR. This machine previously had a nonhalting argument by Racheline, and [https://discord.com/channels/960643023006490684/1259770421046411285/1510867717194911874 mxdys verified the FAR solution in Rocq on 1 June], lowering the formal holdout count to 65.


== Holdouts ==
== Holdouts ==

Revision as of 08:05, 14 September 2026

The 2-state, 5-symbol Busy Beaver problem, BB(2,5), is unsolved. With the discovery of the Cryptid machine Hydra in April 2024, we now know that we must solve a Collatz-like problem in order to solve BB(2,5) and thus BB(2,5) is Hard.

The current BB(2,5) champion 1RB3LA4RB0RB2LA_1LB2LA3LA1RA1RZ (bbch) was discovered by Daniel Yuan in June 2024, proving the lower bounds:

S(2,5)>Σ(2,5)>1010103314360>104

Cryptids

Known Cryptids:

Potential Cryptids:

Top Halters

The 20 longest running known halting BB(2,5) TMs are:

Standard format (approximate) runtime Discoverer
1RB3LA4RB0RB2LA_1LB2LA3LA1RA1RZ (bbch) 104.8142742 Daniel Yuan
1RB2LB4LB3LA1RZ_1LA3RA3LB0LB0RA (bbch) >1038033 Pavel Kropitz
1RB2LA1RA2LB2LA_0LA2RB3RB4RA1RZ (bbch) >1.9×10704 Terry and Shawn Ligocki
1RB2RA3LA4RB---_2LA3RB3RA1LB3LB (bbch) >8.3×10466 (lower bound given by score) Daniel Yuan
1RB2LA4RA2LB2LA_0LA2RB3RB1RA1RZ (bbch) >1.6×10211 Terry and Shawn Ligocki
1RB2LA4RA2LB2LA_0LA2RB3RB4RA1RZ (bbch) >1.6×10211 Terry and Shawn Ligocki
1RB2LA4RA1LB2LA_0LA2RB3RB2RA1RZ (bbch) >5.2×1061 Terry and Shawn Ligocki
1RB0RB4RA2LB2LA_2LA1LB3RB4RA1RZ (bbch) >7×1021 Terry and Shawn Ligocki
1RB2RA3LA4LA2RB_2LA---1LA1RA3RA (bbch) >6.04×1021 prurq and LegionMammal978
1RB3LA4LA2RB1LA_2LA4RB---3RA3LA (bbch) >1.589×1020 prurq and LegionMammal978
1RB1RZ4LA4LB2RA_2LB2RB3RB2RA0RB (bbch) >9×1016 Terry and Shawn Ligocki
1RB3LA1LA0LB1RA_2LA4LB4LA1RA1RZ (bbch) >3.77×1016 Terry and Shawn Ligocki
1RB2RA1LA3LA2RA_2LA3RB4LA1LB1RZ (bbch) >9×1015 Terry and Shawn Ligocki
1RB2LB4RB2RB---_1LA3RA4RA3LB1LB (bbch) 6.64187×1015 mxdys
1RB2RB4LB2LB---_2LA0LA3RB0LA2RA (bbch) 3.1317×1015 mxdys
1RB0RA3LB1LB---_2LA3RB4RB3RA0LA (bbch) 2.7527×1015 mxdys
1RB2LB2RA4LB1RA_1LA3RA3LA4LA--- (bbch) 1.7828×1015 mxdys
1RB3LA---4RB0LB_2LA3LB4LA1RB3RA (bbch) 6.66046×1014 mxdys
1RB2RA1LA1LB3LB_2LA3RB1RZ4RA1LA (bbch) 417,310,842,648,366 Terry and Shawn Ligocki
1RB3LA1LA2LA1RA_2LB3RA2RB4RB--- (bbch) 1.61577×1014 mxdys

Certified progress

In April 2024, Shawn Ligocki publicly released a list of 23,411 undecided BB(2,5) machines. Justin Blanchard then made substantial progress over the course of the next month, reducing the list to 499 holdouts by late May 2024. In June 2024, @mxdys cut down the list to 273 using halting and inductive deciders, and again to 217 using CTL. In February 2025, @mxdys ran a decider pipeline in Rocq that resulted in only 173 holdouts. Since then, additional machines have been proven in Rocq using both deciders and individual proofs.

On 29 Mar 2025, @mxdys published a list of 83 holdouts that withstood state-of-the-art Rocq deciders. Over the course of 5 months, @mxdys added 8 machines to Rocq[1][2][3][4][5], lowering the certified holdout count to 75.

Using existing C++ deciders, Andrew Ducharme found two machines non-halting on 29 Jan 2026 and 11 Feb 2026. On 11 March 2026, Peacemaker II solved a permutation of one of the TMs Andrew solved by tweaking some of the decider parameters. @mxdys verified each result the days they were announced. Also on 11 Feb 2026, @mxdys proved in Rocq another TM as a translated cycler. This combined progress reduced the formal holdout count to 71.

On 16 March 2026, mxdys formalised a proof from October 2024 and a proof from October 2025, thus reducing the holdout count to 69.[6][7]

On 1 April 2026, Discord user mammillaria shared a Lean formalisation of the BMO 3 problem and its solution, which he created using Aristotle AI. Then mxdys formalised the result in Rocq using LLMs, then extended it the next day to solve a BMO 3 variant, reducing the holdout count to 66.

On 30 May 2026, Andrew Ducharme showed 1RB2LB---4LB0RB_1LA3RB4RB4RA1LB (bbch) nonhalting via FAR. mxdys verified the FAR solution in Rocq on 1 June.

On 8 September 2026, mxdys used the newest Rocq deciders to solve five holdouts, leaving only 60 formal holdouts.

Holdouts

This section is based on the list of 83 holdouts published by @mxdys, and includes further progress as of 1 June 2026. There are 65 Rocq-holdouts, or 60 when considering informal proofs.

Cryptids

Unsolved

14 grandchildren of 1RB2LA0RB1LB_1LA3RA1RA--- (bbch)

  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4RB0LB (bbch).

and the family 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB---. See this thread for more details.

  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB2RB (bbch). Simulated for 9*101167 steps by @hipparcos, hasn't halted yet
  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB2LB (bbch). Simulated for 1.3*101094 steps by @hipparcos, hasn't halted yet
  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB1RB (bbch). Simulated for 9.8*101226 steps by @hipparcos, hasn't halted yet
  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB1LB (bbch). Simulated for 3*101140 steps by @hipparcos, hasn't halted yet
  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB0LB (bbch). Simulated for 2.6*10889 steps by @hipparcos, hasn't halted yet
  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB0RB (bbch).
  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB3RA (bbch).
  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB2RA (bbch).
  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB2LA (bbch).
  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB1RA (bbch).
  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB1LA (bbch).
  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB0RA (bbch).
  • 1RB2LA0RB1LB---_1LA3RA1RA4LB0LA (bbch).

Solved with moderate rigor

Formally proven